Meaning Of A Acropolis

St. Louis Post-Dispatch Jim Gallagher column

St. Louis Post-Dispatch Jim Gallagher column

Jul 31, 2011 (St. Louis Post-Dispatch - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- If Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, it may well launch investors on a scary roller coaster ride this week. So, investment pros are giving advice fit for coaster riders:

Hang on tight. Scream if you like, but don't try to jump off. It's too late for that.

"You should stay invested. This looks to us like a short-term problem," say Kate Warne, investment strategist at the Edward Jones brokerage headquarters in Des Peres.

So far, the markets have shown only slight jitters over a possible government default. The S&P 500, a broad measure of the stock market, is down 4 percent over the past week. But even that slide could be as much a reaction to dreary economic news as to worries over possible default.

There is more jumpiness in the short-term end of the credit markets. Short term rates rose this week, and investors pulled billions out of money-market mutual funds.

But the long end is surprisingly serene. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond actually declined this week and took a sharp dip on Friday.

That's the opposite of what would be expected as the big rating agencies threatened to yank the nation's sterling triple-A credit rating in the event that Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.

Instead, traders seemed more worried about Friday's gross domestic product report showing economic growth at a crawl, which would justify lower rates.

A possible reason: Professional traders, who dominate the markets, still expect Republicans and Democrats to strike a deal on the debt limit before the deadline.

"It will probably happen at the very last minute," says Warne. "There's considerable agreement that they don't want the U.S. to default."

Small investors are chewing their nails, but generally holding firm despite growing nervousness.

"They're primarily concerned about another 2008," says David Ott of Acropolis Investment Management in Chesterfield. Stocks lost half their value in the last financial crisis. "In part, what they're saying is, 'Isn't this our opportunity to get out?'"

Ott is telling clients to sit tight.

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